Stop Waiting: What Distributors Get Wrong in Uncertain Markets

In a recent conversation on Distribution Strategy Group’s Wholesale Change podcast, the discussion turned to something most distributors are dealing with right now: how to respond when the market gets unpredictable.

Rising costs, shifting demand, broader economic pressure—it’s not a new situation for this industry. If anything, it’s becoming more common.

What is consistent is how companies tend to react.

They don’t panic. They don’t make dramatic moves.

They slow down.

Hiring gets more cautious.
Projects take longer to move forward.
Technology decisions get pushed out another quarter.

None of that is irrational. In fact, most of it looks like good management.

But as White Cup CEO Matt Mullen shared in the conversation, that instinct – while understandable – often works against the outcome companies are trying to protect.

“History tells us that when you have a downturn, it’s not the time to turtle.”

That’s not a recommendation to ignore reality or spend aggressively. It’s a recognition of something that shows up consistently in distribution: the companies that maintain forward momentum during uncertain periods tend to come out ahead of the ones that pause.

The issue isn’t bad strategy. It’s interrupted execution.

One of the more practical points Matt made is that most distributors don’t need a new strategy in these moments. They already have one.

They’ve defined growth targets, identified key accounts, invested in sales coverage, and started to build the internal processes to support that.

Then something external changes, and progress stalls.

“You had a strategy for growth… and then you paused.”

What gets delayed is rarely random. It’s usually the work that improves how the business executes:

• Sales process consistency
• CRM adoption and usage
• Better visibility into customer behavior
• Territory and account planning

Those aren’t the loudest initiatives in the business, but they’re often the ones that determine whether a team can actually convert opportunity into revenue.

When they slow down, the impact isn’t immediate. It shows up over time—in missed opportunities, inconsistent follow-through, and a general loss of momentum across the commercial team.

Demand doesn’t go away – it shifts

Another theme that came up in the Wholesale Change conversation is how demand behaves in uncertain markets.

Customers don’t stop buying, but they do become more selective.

They consolidate vendors.
They prioritize reliability.
They pay closer attention to pricing and availability.

At the same time, many distributors reduce proactive selling activity – fewer campaigns, less outreach, less focus on expanding share of wallet within existing accounts.

That combination creates a dynamic that’s easy to overlook.

The opportunity is still there. It’s just being redistributed.

The companies that stay engaged with their customers—who continue to identify where they’re underpenetrated, where buying patterns are changing, and where there’s risk—are the ones that tend to capture that shift.

Efficiency matters, but it’s not the whole picture

In periods like this, it’s natural to focus on cost.

Tightening operations, managing inventory carefully, reducing unnecessary spend—those are all important and necessary.

But as Matt framed it, there are two sides to the equation:

• Improving operational efficiency (cost compression)
• Improving how effectively you capture available demand (market efficiency)

Most organizations are structurally better at the first.

It’s easier to measure. Easier to control. Easier to act on quickly.

The second is less straightforward. It depends on how well your sales team is operating, how clearly you understand your customers, and how effectively you can act on that information.

But it’s also where long-term advantage is built.

You can only reduce cost so far.
You can continue to improve how you sell.

Where AI actually fits into this

A lot of the discussion around AI in distribution has centered on automation – doing the same work faster or with fewer resources.

That’s part of the story, but it’s not the most interesting part. Matt made a point that’s worth sitting with:

“This isn’t artificial automation. It’s artificial intelligence.”

For distributors, the bigger opportunity isn’t just saving time. It’s improving decision-making. Most organizations already have the data:

• Order history
• Customer purchasing patterns
• Pricing structures
• Inventory movement

The challenge is that it’s fragmented, historical, and difficult to apply in the moment a decision needs to be made.

What AI can do – when applied correctly – is bring that information together and translate it into something actionable. Not just what happened, but what to do next.

This is the shift from systems of record — which explain what happened — to systems of action, which guide what to do next.

Making better decisions at the point of action

In practical terms, that shows up in ways that are very familiar to distributors:

• Identifying customers whose purchasing patterns are starting to decline
• Highlighting product categories where you’re underpenetrated within an account
• Recommending pricing or promotional actions based on actual buying behavior
• Surfacing inventory that needs to move before it becomes a larger problem

Matt shared an example around aging inventory that illustrates this well.

Instead of relying on someone to manually identify slow-moving stock, build a campaign, and push it out to the field, the system can do that automatically – targeting the right customers based on past behavior and improving over time as it learns what works.

That’s not just faster execution. It’s more consistent execution.

And consistency is often the gap between strategy and results.

The impact on sales teams is more subtle than it sounds

It’s easy to frame all of this as making sales teams more efficient. But the more meaningful change is in how they operate. When a rep walks into a conversation with:

• A clear understanding of what’s changed
• Visibility into where the opportunity is
• Context on what matters to that customer right now

They’re not just saving time—they’re making better decisions about where to focus and how to engage.

That leads to:

• More relevant conversations
• Better prioritization of accounts
• Increased ability to expand within existing customers

Over time, that compounds.

The tradeoff most companies don’t think through

At one point, the Wholesale Change conversation simplified this down to a choice: Would you rather increase revenue by 5%, or decrease cost by 5%?

Most organizations gravitate toward cost reduction. It feels more immediate and controllable.

But over time, that mindset has limits.

Cost reduction stabilizes the business.
Revenue growth creates leverage.

The distributors that consistently grow – especially through uncertain periods – are the ones that continue to invest in how they generate and capture revenue, even while managing costs carefully.

If you strip this down to practical moves, the playbook isn’t complicated:

• Tighten pricing discipline
  Small, consistent improvements matter more than sweeping changes.
• Maintain sales and marketing focus
  When demand softens, visibility matters more – not less.
• Invest in how decisions get made
  CRM, analytics, and AI shape execution.
• Reduce cost away from the customer
  Protect the parts of the business that generate revenue.

A more useful way to think about the next 18 months

Toward the end of the Wholesale Change discussion, Matt offered a framing that’s worth keeping in mind:

Where do you want the business to be 18 months from now? And are the decisions you’re making today helping you get there, or simply reacting to what’s happening right now?

That’s not always an easy question to answer in the middle of uncertainty, but it’s often the difference between maintaining position and moving ahead.

There’s no shortage of external pressure on distributors right now. The bigger variable is how companies respond internally. Some will slow down just enough to protect what they have. Others will stay focused on execution and continue to move forward.

Over time, that difference tends to show up in the only place that really matters: who gains ground, and who gives it up.

👉 Watch the full conversation here: